                           ˿µϣ20140217գ

14.02.16ûи
14.02.17, ӡٽҡйˡˡ
14.02.17, ӡڵġٴá
14.02.17, ӡйЭùԽԽͿ
14.02.17, tר÷ӣΪʲôɣ
14.02.17, й֮ר÷ӣӡٶʿͦתʿ
14.02.17, ˽۽1ڣƷԲ˲޺
14.02.17, Уĳְǧ˼ƻйĽ
14.02.17, NKLiangҲ˵ˡ⡷
14.02.17, oochenckйչʷ۽¼ݱ䡷
14.02.17, ںӡתġг𣿡
14.02.17, ںӡġ
14.02.17, ۳ᡶʵΪѧԬ־պĽƱ硷
14.02.17, ѭʱϲ㡶ûרҵҲָоĲڵ
14.02.17, huaiyinɽѧʵзɻƱжɹƶȣô
14.02.17, ΢Ĵձ йΪ֧ˡŭ

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                    ӡ

ڼһӾͿΪйˡ
ϻ⣬ý嶼ˡǿԡйˡ
桱ıеĻˡӴʧ֡ı⣬ƣ

27գĽĿ¼ⱨ档ʦѧ֪
ѧѧϰʵҵרҶһϵеĲԺΪ
ύ϶Եڳˡµ̲ԣ̽ﵽ
56Զͨ˵ˮƽǰжϰ˵з֣
ѧϳˮƽרһһֵ
ɼѧʱ볣ͬɸӼʱ
ȴСڳˡһܵĽǣѾѳ˷Ծӹ
ҪֻǳٵԴͿɡ֮ĴУƺ
һ˷ġרCPUʹΪ˷Ϳĳš

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Ƭԡ֪Ⲣǡ¼⡱201312
27ĲԣƵ6룩
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjcwNzgyNDIw.html ıݽĿ
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40ѧ⣬18ӣ34⡣ͷԾһͨ
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http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjcwNzgyMzk2.html ܱϳĿ
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7. 900Ŀ=30
9. 10ƽ=100
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13. 7=343
15. 512=8
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17. 5=125
19. 125=5
21. 79626245η=24
22. 715η=4747561509943
23. 613η=13060694016
24. 5066231204697η=47
25. 15448044166η=34
26. 519η=19073486328125

пԿǰ沿ֵĿ򵥣ȷ϶Ȼ
šĪΪͷķĿѣҲû
ȥ˷ֻǸλʮηǴߴηֻ2λ
ЩǿԱġɼѧʱ볣ͬ
ɸӼʱȴСڳˡԻԽ׼ȷ
˵ɼѧʱͳһڼ㣬ɸѧ
ʱǿ𰸣ûڼ㣬ȴСڳˡȻרҡ
򵥵ĽӶ˺һĴУƺһ˷
רCPUͣⲻǺܻ

ϸԾر֣

һ1619ƽΧĶ֪361ΧҲ
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ĴǿŵģЩӵöġһĿȴ
ˡó613η519ηȴ19ƽʲô
šҲ˵ЩĿǱģܹ6ûԣǲǾ
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23613ηȻ20ıݽĿУϺѧ
ϵ񵱳⣬һҲ613ηôôɣԵ
ʦרңʱϺרңȴһģһ⣬ⲻ֤
ֻضġ⡱ǿר

ĲԣѹҲܵѧšЩרҵ޳ܣ
ҵ˵һƭӣԩ𣿲ҳ⵱⡣

2014.2.12.

(XYS20140217)

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               ڵġٴ

                     ӡ

ԭйѧԺ봫ооԱйѧ
ѧԺѧνڣоۡʷѧѧ
иİãǾоһڷٵеٴ
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רҵоšԶΪѧо
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ˣIDʴмǧݶǹҵ񡢴ѧ
ѧоٴҲרҵͰʵϣIDҪ
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ٴûǧҲм½ڼѰ
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дãҲɡ

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ٴվǷҵĿģö֪ᳫʹٴ
ڳ֮ΪһԴ̼ã޳ɼҳŮʹ
ΪŮʹٴԱ֤䡰١ֹкʹٴ
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иŮѧѻֵҪ󣬡ֻ֪ôܱҵĵ
ߣ˽˵˵¡˻ٴϽٴͽ
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ȷ˵Լֻ15ꡢ17ꡢѧδˣȻָ
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иС˵ٴٴٴٴ 15.ʲô
о Ƽ𡱳ش𣺡һ԰ɣûʲô
ƼַԣС2013ϰ塯ǿϴȽϷ㣬
治ײ¶

δƷǿΣ彡ŰƷǷΥ


2014.2.17.

(XYS20140217)

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                 йЭùԽԽͿ

                        ӡ

йЭ2013ʮ¼ӺʹԪת
ȻΧûܽİ񵥡ұֽԴΪⱨһϢ磺
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һƪеͷйЭṩһ
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ǿ¼йЭǰԱȵûҶԡԽԽ
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ġЭѧٽֿ֧ѧ֧ת
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ԪתҥҥûйЭһֻû
һǮʿҥ壬йЭĹүȴԴ˵
˵ùԽԽͿȻôԼҥ壿ʮû
мйЭתйжȫǿѧҡҡ
ʿĸжֿתйЭôԵ˰˸Ĺʣ
ʬλز͡²ĹŻɢˡ

2014.2.14.

(XYS20140217)

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ӣΪʲôɣ

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ڷΪת¡աʱһ벻ˡԪվ
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ڸȫһΣȥսˣǶҪˡ

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ӣ˵Ļһ֣ο֮䱾30
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Ӵ٣ⲻţȻﲻˡǵۣݵ
ôġ١ѵݲһ

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ר÷ӣӡٶʿͦתʿ

29Ϣ ʵϰ֣쿣й֮
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˵ʱԼϲʫǶŸġһа
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ǧ˼ƻйĽ

ߣУĳְ

ڣ˿վ¶ǧĿпεձ͡Ƹ񡱵Ļ
ơǧͨƼƸģίһ롣Уо
Ƽ˭УĴСоȨҲ١˭ûѧݡѡ
ϵǸȦӣˮȦƼɡй
˵ڶû˼ʹϵҪ˲żƻξǿ˳
㲻˳Ƹ񡰵ıָر˶Ƹ»
Ƹݱɱʡ

ʿձҵʿճվֱڻоԱȫֻй
30ǰĸӰ죬пԭĸ￪30
ֻ˵йĽͿԭشȦѭһ
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ǧǵˮƽжߣҵ֪ǧûдǰ30
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йѧԺİ˼ƻ»鲿ǧԤơпԺһЩǧڼ
ϲˣٳɷ硣й˲żƻ˵Ȩ˰ˣ
ǧԳѧߡǧ˼ƻ

ڸУĽнͨ10-20򣬶ǧн򡣽ֻ̤ǧ
ְй˵ѪǮ

йĸУоûûͬһλӽʦ
УҵǧƵˣЩ˵յܻﲻǧ
㡣ֻҪйְƽ;һǧȨ·һͨ˵
·йԶûнĽ

й˲ƻЧΣֻҪ㿴ʮꡢʮǰ˲ţ
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Ժʿֺ˵˵ԲˡйԺʿ10
˲ԺʿҲᷭ10ίڵ10
˲ýҲᷭ10ٽЩ˲ʲôгɹԹҽ
ʲôʲôףƼУ˲ǹһ
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Ҳ˵ˡ

ߣNKLiang

ѧȽػЩػ͸ˡ޸

ѧоУκι۲ݻ淶ǣȳ֪Ŀѧ
ɹͣΪ֪ĿѧɹѾ֤ʵĿǰ֪
ĿѧɹԽ͵ݻ󣬸ͬĽͣóͬĽۣ
۾ǡǱѰĽۡǱѰĽۣ֤ظ
ķǱѰ֤ݡûиˡǱѰ֤ݣ
ۣɣθֵ֤ݻظɣ෴
ν ˭ţ˭֤һ֤ݣ˵һֻʹ֤ʵ
ȷʵȷʵϽĿѧȻᣨҲӦãأлߣá
ΪЩʹƣʹȷõϡ

ǿѧĻ淶ǿѧұصĿѧ£Ǳ֤ѧȷ
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ǱѰĽֻۣбűܵνظ飬Լ
ʵ۲ֶȷⲻǿѧǱ׼ʹƿѧ
ͦҲֻǱȽѧѡ

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ҲͷýǵġɽĿƫƫһѧеϵ
֡ǿԡ˾˵ȨĿѧңѧҵ飬ڵ
ʱҲ⣬

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ݶԣԸļ㣬̫Զˣ񱻹̻CPU
Уʵʵ֤ʵĴԵ棻УԺ֧һ
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񻰡Ϊ֣߼ܿղ룬йĸ߿ֻ
⣬߿ľУľ伤ҳ̶Ⱦڡ
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Ŀ 仰һ淴ӳѧҵϽܹõѧѵ
˵Ļץ©ͬʱҲӳѧѧҵĲͬѧ
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ȹĵ۲ǷϽǷѧ淶ǷǷɱ
ظڴ֮ǰϿɽۡ

Ҹ˱Ƚͬ@¬ дܺѧµѧңĹ۵
2ǣеıݶԣһʹҶ㼼ɵĿ
ֺܻɵ̬ȣǾ涮㼼ɣܴﵽʹ˾ȵ
ȣֺαƫƫҪѡЩƾӲҲѽأǴ
⵱ȻҲǲܣһų㼼ܵˣƫƫѡ˿׵
ĿҾèĿԶԶڴɵĿԡ

ڳµѧ淶ġǱѰ֤֮ǰĿǰ֤ݶԣ
ڽĿ鼰ǵרҵĽۺͷӵ֮ѡһѡ
ӡ

ǿѧıϣǿѧزٵһ֡Խר
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ר龪̾ѵ쿣ѭСѧ˶֪
ѭСֻ漰򵥵ı25ĳҲʹ
ר龪̾

ǰһѣƺһڹĲʿ΢⣬
ͻȻһ䣺ѵѧǿҶʱɴ뵽
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ۣ

΢һ㷢ƽ̨һԵƽ̨һϢƽ
̨ҲһԺ˵˵ƽ̨ĳݣѧ߻
֤V΢ˣӦϽӦñֳ㹻ĿѧΪ
ڻΪգΪѧĹʶ

ΧУЩûбֳӦеϽͿѧ 
磬Ŀոճûκ֤ݵ£ĳVĿʿԣ
Թ㷨ȡܴĸ @ī 
˼ רҵ͹[-
]ǰߣӦáһ֤ݣ˵һֻ⼸ǰ
죬ͬһ¼ĻҲ֪߼һǿѧ


УһЩʿΪ϶ͬģ
ȺĹػ⣬ҲӦΪΪĿ绤
ɵ۾ݾ߼ˡΪΪһЩ
ףôӦɵǽĿΪʲôСǿԡ
Ҳǿ֮ģΪʲôϵĽۡǾ߱
ǿԡǾûҪ˵£ֻҪܹ֤ǿԡķϿѧ
淶֤ݼɡ

и37ӡȸŮɯ50ͼѧ4д
201λ23ηľȷֵٶȳ˵ʱļǲ
ǱǿĴԣ޸ûʲôԸ
ļ㣬̫Զˣ񱻹̻CPUԹ㷨ȡ
ܴĸдһƪ¡[3]
ϸйؼ㼼ɡһ仰ѧȽػЩ
ػ͸ˡ30ȥˣ仰Ȼʵ塣

йǸԸĹȣˣý壬ƺϲ
桱һЩ˶һЩѰ߼ҪǱѰĽͣ
ҲԸЩûи֤ݵġǱѰĽۡʷڲϵ
ݣÿЩͻ֡䶯֣ʦˮͣһ
ɡ

ʮǰйһʵġǿԡʷգʷյ
㷨䶯ǸԴƶ㷨ƺһӦüֵ
ʮȥˣһԿ϶ʷյ㷨ûжԼѧ˿Ӱ
죬ʷյĴԾûԿѧ˿չ

Ҳ˲ͬ⣬ȻΪʹгֵ֤֤η
ӴˣȻҪлӡʹǿԡר
ѧңʹĿǰʽν֤ƣΪѧ淶Ͻ֤ݣӶ
ȡԿѧķǳǳشʷͻơҪǣǷӵɣ
ûлع𵽴ǡǿԡ֮硣Ҳǿˣӱ
ʡĳٷ΢ѾƺӱҲСǿԡ

ѧҡڡýˣˡܹýǣо
Զȡû޸ѧɾͣǶ߱ġǿĴ
ԡѧʶĲѧֻҪԵܵĽ
ؿѧľǶӦѧ

1http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_9880df420101cinn.html

2http://www.changhai.org/community/article_load.php?aid=1390696222

3޸ѡP240

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йչʷ۽¼ݱ

ߣoochenck

عһйʷķչ

һ׶Σѿ׶Ρ

79꣬Ĵһͯö֣Ǹй칦
Ŀˡţʡи㲻ӿ֡ͯĵƭ
ǿֵͼƭױ𴩡

ڶ׶Σֽ׶Ρ

82űʤ֣ҹ칦ܵһѽΡ84꣬µǳ
ʦʱʹʽչЩʦǶͬص㣬С硰ͻƿ
ϰβȣЩֶڼѸ߳࣬һ˵
ҲԿࡣˣִ֮ʦʦĹҲԽԽǿȻ
ͽĻҲԽԽ

׶Σ۽׶Ρ

89꣬·ʦһ飬һϵе鼮
֤񹦴ڵĺԣѧΪʦơʦһ̳
Ϊ񹦵£ũ񡢹˵֪ʶӣͨյԱŮ
ףԸָķʽⳡ˳

Ľ׶Σ׶

90˾Ϊķαѧʿǣǿķ
ĹǼ׿ģǰʱ10֮ãѹа
ʦץץӵӣ

ٿ¼ݱε

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ǿ㲥һ֮Աǣⲻ񹦵һ׶
СϷҲͺŪһ²ˣ˲һ¾ʹˡȻ
΢ֱָƭӣ˵㲻˵ʹη⡣

ڶ׶Σ

ĸ׻ӦɣҼҺӿԼ汾£ǲɡ
30λ֣299η㿪һҶе㲻ˣԭ
ز¶оѽȫҪ񹦵ڶ׶εĽϧ
٣Ͳ֮ˡеģʦ
ܵġ

׶Σ

ӵϣȻʦˣڶ׶ηչȥ
ϣһŵ˵̬Ѹ񹦵׶Ρλʦ
Ϸⱨ棬Уƺһ̻ĳ˷רCPUǳ
ĳš˱ýתأ֤ŵĺԣ
ýΪơ

˱һҲûˣһ·Ҫٻʲô


1һ˲ױҲ⡣˼ⱨ
˵ˣCPUҲб߽ģʤ㡱ⳬ߽
ˡ
2һ˿ԱҲ⡣⵱Ȼ
˱ġѵĲͬûûѵCPUԶġ
3ΪʲôһѵҲɨԲԣʲôͬ
˼ʦԴޣֻ⣬˲ڼⷶΧұʦ
ϸǻܣ㹫ġ
4費˵30λ㿪ûѽû˵λЧ֣
һ6λҴ𰸾ȷλҲ˵Ҵ?
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ʲôܺͨȥõĵơ

˵˭ôɣֻҪӺⲻϣǡ
š

ǼţͲ½Ҵѧϰһµӵ


2010꣬ą̂ҽ򱾣򱾱Ҵą̂ô
˵أڶ˵ƫŷǽĿסÿڽĿ
ĻʾαۣοȫƸںͼα

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Ƹʦ󣺡̫ƭˣʦⱨ

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ĿԴ

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תġг

ߣں

ȥһУҹתֲȻûб仯û׼
κһתҵֲսȻڻ죬תɲ䷳
ظŸҥԣͦתæݵز⡣ȻϸĻ
ֳᷢ˴ͳͦתͷת֮⣬һɱѾͻӰ
Ѹ

ǲȨҽһɳΪԵɡһɵǶԷת̬ºͣ
ͦתȴΪΪתǰȫģڱŷת
ũҵķչǵΪͦתȴǺܶ෴תϲּġ
ϾתҲ֪תǰȫģֻҪʵ𵽷תã
˵ȫǲȫǲر⡣

ԵַһǸתʳƷǿƱעһǹĴת
ġгãˡƹ㡱ڱע⣬ǰһʱѾв
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Եɳ˵еתûԵߣֻǽֲ
ƹļֵ˵ǲԵģڹ㷺ֲתס
Ͳ˲ڴͳƷ֡ЩƷֻǽԼ˳ɱûӲ
ҲȻġȡڲͶȣͽɱʵǵȼ۵ġ

Եɻ˵ڵתﲢûӪḻ߸óԣǵĺô
ֻũũģʹͶгҲϲʵ̫
ˡԶѧ˾֪߹ںͼ
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ģòȥ߾ͻƲ˲ϱ
ȥĺô治ֻũũĺôô
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ƻãתʳƷгãũΪʲôֲת
ֻתʳƷûкôôתʳƷôȥģ
ũɵ˻ɵˣ

˾β̫˵⣬йҹת
󶹵Ľ2013ѳ6000ַ֡ǧֵľ޴
ȴ˵гãⲻ˵Ϲ𣿶ңת׵
ͷҲѲ赲

⣬Եɻ񶾵͵ѹתʳƷ޺
תƷᣩ˵ڡƹ㡱תй
ߺȰѧͨڼȲȨأֲҵ˾ǼȲƹ㣬
ҲֻԼԺжһڹձͬʵ
йгãڻðȫ֤תӦУũ
ѡӣѡƷϣԵɱøũ
ڸʲôʲôũǴֻûǻ
ˡ

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ߣں 

˵ תҵֲδ֮꣬У
ҪǼũͶ룬￹Եļ֮ʳ
ȫûʵеΣУôԽ͸ǿȺɱΪҪ
ĵһתгδɷ裬Ҳ֮С
http://t.itc.cn/9Evsv

ʵйۼҵתûеģûУȻ
гɷ衣һʧѧͯûڿȡúóɼһ
ӵġ֮С˵ת޻תľϣĸг
ˣĺ˵ҹÿ5000ת󶹡ôȱ
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׼ҵֲ⣬һЩг⡣Ϊ
֣ȻûΪûȻûΪûгãΪ
гãԸɴˡ߼

Ȼ׳һۡҹÿ5000ת󶹣
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֪ҹͳʳƫ٣ࣨҪǵۣࡣ
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ˮƽڹũ壬뻹Բġǵ
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Աĸȣ顾ԤͳʳģʽӶǲ
û𣿶ңȨøԤΪʲôƫƫҪԤ
ĳȨ

ݹȫģڵһ˵֮ͦתݬ룬һЩ
ɱȡʽò5%пѧȺ֮Ψֲ


ΪͦתΪĲȡһЩ棬ϧ˺ũҵִķ
Ϊȷʵпѧ˱֮

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ʵΪѧԬ־պĽƱ

ߣ۳

20131217ոʵ˿Ӧ͸ˣһУ
عĹѧҡԺԬ־պ Ӹ츻
һ෢ڿоĺ忴У˶
XYS20120101оͬȴڻӦΪǽƱ˵Ϊ˿
ṹϱƶȺŴʡмҲȫģ
߸ûʲôѿԡʵԬ־պĵ
󣬸ҪʲôѿԣǰԬĵ1ֱcopy


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1ݺsgn[ds/dn]= sgn[ 1 -1/]һ£ʵ
û˵ǴģٿĺԬᵽѧMankiw , 
1981ڵྭѧѿƣõԴ
110֮䣬ΪԬηչֱӼйѿҲ110֮䣬
⼫ΪΪ110֮䣬˵йҲ110֮䣬
κһܹѧı֪ĳʶԬΪڡ
ѧôͲ

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һľѧ־ûйϵͱʦһƪǳѣԬ־ƾ
뾭о༭ܵ˽˹ϵ񷢱15ƪϸĶЩ
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ѧұѧұýġ߶ۼ
йеӦáһ飬ǳϮ˰䵼ʦڵĹƴ
նɣԬ־ǲΪϮԼʦԣԬ־ƾ辭
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۾ѧԱϺѧḱ᳤Ϻоѯרҵһϵ
ҪͷΣЩͷΣݽ桢¡Ϊزҡź
Уμӿ⡢ְƺ˲Ŀ׬죬ˡڡ

оһǹȫʦ޲ܰͽϾо࣬й
ѧȵߵƶ£оĵλ̧ĳ̶ȣֻҪ
ھоϷһƪ£ڸУ5ԪϣְҲ˱֤
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Խȥʵ±ֻҪڿθߡ࣬
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ݾٲö֪Ŵѧũھоʵ֤о
17ƪΪôУɹ̫ʹ˱ýݣⱻ
http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-free-3480931-1.shtmlʵٱ
ŴѧлһηǿȨУвΪôĨڣ
֪ôУ쵼˽˵ô󣬻йô󣿾о᳤顢̫
ȶйԺίǣڿ඼ѧңйȴ
ǲѧĵίǣ᳤顢̫ʣǵѧˮƽƷ
䵱һѧڿ

Ԭ־ձƱҵйѧݴѧҵϺѧУ
óѧԺй˵Ӣ۲ʳƾ֤Լҵ
ѧͬ𾴣ˮڣϻﳭϮ̲Ķԣ
ŷѧˮƽ Ԭ־ƽƽȴóȣ
ɹ벻ĵʦFabrizio ZilibottiFabrizio2005
University of StockholmҵɵĲʿĿ¼£

Chapter 1: Introduction 
Chapter 2: Ideology and the Determination of Public Policy over 
Time 
Chapter 3: Dynamic Inequality and Social Security 
Chapter 4: A Markovian Social Contract of Social Security 

2005ҵ7ʱ䣬Žʿĵڶڹ־ 
International Economic Review2012꣬Vol. 53, No. 1ôʱ
䷢ʲôǲעǣInternational Economic Review
ϦǴѧϵ죬Editorial BoardеHanming Fang
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1468-2354/homep
age/EditorialBoard.htmlǸѧԺԺԬ־յϿ͡Ʊ
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